Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
